The writer is CEO of AsiaBIZ Strategy, a Singapore-based consultancy that provides Asian market research and investment/trade promotion services

The world-famous yin–yang symbol, representing cosmic duality governing the universe, dates back to an ancient Chinese philosophy. The black ‘yin’ segment represents inward energy that is feminine, still, dark and negative. Meanwhile the white ‘yang’ is masculine, bright and positive, representing outward energy. To assess the impact of the upcoming US election in Asia, let’s consult my reversed yin–yang. Donald Trump is negative yin while Kamala Harris is positive yang.

A Republican win would likely see a return to Mr Trump’s transactional and unilateral worldview, engaging in China arm twisting, alienating his US allies, seeking to rebalance trade through tariffs and improving ties with Russia. The result could see pro-US governments in Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan seeking more support from western Europe, and in some cases, even being more cordial with Beijing. In turn, expect trade and investment to recalibrate, with flows increasing between these countries at the expense of the US. Meanwhile, the rest of south-east Asia would likely remain neutral, opting to keep practising open trade with all.  

Under this administration, geopolitically we’d see a yin effect — or a dark, hawkish stance — in Asia, too. Given his promises to reduce US defence spending and support overseas and the country’s steer towards isolationism, southeast Asia is likely to collectively heighten its security, especially given China’s assertive behaviour in the South China Sea. 

Economically, however, the yin–yang effect between the two candidates may be marginal. The Biden administration has retained most of Mr Trump’s China tariffs and both parties still view China as a threat and competitor. 

A Harris victory would, on balance, likely see a yang effect for Asia. Though her campaign platform is being criticised as light on policy, she has promised to focus on relationships with allies and she would continue her predecessor’s leadership of the two year-old Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. We can also expect to see more trade and investment flow between the US and India plus southeast Asia, particularly in high-tech and clean energy industries.

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This article first appeared in the October/November 2024 print edition of fDi Intelligence